An equilibrium guarantees stable NAND Flash pricing in Q4
After experiencing a mild shortage for two consecutive quarters in Q2 and Q3, global NAND Flash sufficiency is expected to stay in a notionally equilibrium in Q4. Supply bit growth is expected to be 14% at 1,800 mn units of 8Gb-equiv units and demand bit growth is expected to be 13% at 1,810 mn units of 8Gb-equiv units in Q4. 10/28

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Potential price upside stimulates advanced bookings
NAND Flash spot market is still quiet in terms of transaction volume this week (February 1-5). But market sentiment does turn positive as most industry players expect an ASP bounce after the Chinese New Year. 02/05

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Shortage not necessarily points to a sustainable price upside
Thanks to the series of capacity cut since 4Q08, output of the mainstream 1Gb DDR2 has been dropped by 5% and 17% QoQ in 4Q08 and 1Q09, respectively. And QoQ output growth in 2Q09 will be marginal. By taking demand into account, we foresee a mild shortage to emerge as soon as in May, and the shortage is expected to enlarge in 3Q, the traditional hot season for PC sales and new PC model launch. 05/14

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Flattish quotation trend among big names supports a stable DRAM ASP
This is another quiet week for DRAM trading at the Greater China area spot markets, without any significant restock demand at all. As vendors and major memory module houses have maintained their quotations flat, thus only marginal change is seen in corresponding pricing at channels. 02/05

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